Be honest: does your current plan survive a bad month?
Most founders plan for one scenario, the optimistic one. When reality shows up, and it always does, they have no room to move.
Model three versions of the year
| Scenario | Rough odds | Assumes |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | 25% | Everything goes to plan |
| Realistic | 50% | Some things go wrong, some go right |
| Conservative | 25% | Most things go wrong |
The rule: make decisions that work in the realistic case and survive the conservative one.
Two audiences, two languages
Your board wants hockey sticks. Your bank account wants survival.
Investors reward big growth bets, but payroll, vendors and runway don’t care about the story. Many startups fail not because the base case was wrong, but because they ignored the downside when they planned.
The best founders speak both languages: an ambitious growth case for the board, and disciplined cash planning for running the company. The two aren’t in conflict. The second one is what keeps you around long enough to hit the first.
Scorecard